Any future positions that they make after this market is created do not count. I have excluded positions that cannot fail by this time. The positions that qualify are:

Yudkowsky is right that ai video can replicate most anything by eoy 2026

AI is able to generate high quality movies by eoy 2028

Firstuserhere will coauthor a NeurIPS or ICML conference paper by eoy 2024

Instant deepfakes are available for anyone by eoy 2027

More than 10k people worship AI by eoy 2028

If any of these predictions do not come true, this market resolves Yes. If none of them have resolved against them by December 31st, this market resolves No. This market does not take into account whether they sell their positions between now and the end of 2028. If a market does not resolve by year's end, this will not change the market: I only care if a market has resolved against their position by that time.