Some people are worried about the impacts of a conservative presidency transgender issues
This market is part of a series of markets trying to determine the exact dimensions on which policy might change.
For this to resolve yes, the law must pass and be signed into law. By Bathroom Bill, I mean a law restricting access to certain gendered spaces by their birth gender. For gendered sports, similar applies. I’ll also count executive orders, excluding military specific orders (and with all of the following caveats)
If the law passes, but is immediately struck down by courts such that it never actually comes into force, this market resolved no. if at least one person is prosecuted under said law, I’ll definitely resolve yes. If nobody is prosecuted, but the law is left mostly untouched by courts, I’ll also resolve yes. If nobody is prosecuted and I think courts substantially prevented the law from being meaningfully in force, I’ll resolve based on my judgement.
1,000
1.00Couple questions:
Why not include changes to ID documents? This deeply affects trans people’s everyday airport experience, for example (unwanted pat-downs by TSA agents, suspected ID mismatch, etc)
Why resolve NO if the law passes but is struck down? (Would you also resolve NO if the next president overturns?)
Will you include executive orders? (I expect this is the most likely vehicle)
because that’s not what the question is about at all?
Because it matters whether the law has impacts
Yes, will clarify