Background
"Employed computer programmer" is measured by the U.S. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Their latest data shows 147,400 employed computer programmers in 2022, with a projected change of -11% to 130,800 by 2032. Their current Job Outlook says the following:
Despite declining employment, about 6,700 openings for computer programmers are projected each year, on average, over the decade. All of those openings are expected to result from the need to replace workers who transfer to other occupations or exit the labor force, such as to retire.
Employment
Computer programming work continues to be automated, helping computer programmers to become more efficient in some of their tasks. Many companies are leveraging technologies to automate repetitive tasks, such as code formatting, to save time and money. Automation of this routine work could allow computer programmers to focus on other tasks, such as strategic planning activities, that cannot be automated. In addition, some computer programming tasks are more commonly done by other computer occupations, such as developers or analysts.
Resolution Criteria
This question resolves to YES if U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data shows a decrease of at least 25% in the number of employed computer programmers in the U.S. by or before January 1st, 2032, compared to 2022 data, AND this decrease is attributed to AI automation either by the BLS or at least two credible third-party sources.
The question resolves to NO if the BLS data indicates a decrease of less than 25%, OR if any decrease is primarily attributed to reasons other than AI automation, such as economic downturns.
It resolves to N/A if the data is inconclusive or if there's insufficient information regarding the decrease's cause.
Related Forecasts
/tailcalled/will-i-find-ai-to-negatively-impact
/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-the-number-of-computer-program
/VictorLJZ/will-the-unemployment-rate-among-cs
Edits
Title changed to disambiguate implication that AI must be the thing being automated.
Will Automation by AI AI Automation Cut Computer Programmer Jobs at least 25% by 2032?
1,000
1.00@kopecs I find it unlikely, the BLS is not known for their agility. But if there is no direct equivalent to the occupation, it will resolve N/A — as Timothy pointed out, the BLS draws such fine distinctions, so anything other than an apples to apples comparison isn't meaningful.