FTX was very EA-related, the OpenAI crisis looks like it was probably at least somewhat EA-related. Will there be another such crisis in November 2024?

Resolution criteria:

• What counts as a "major" organisation: a company valued at over $1 billion or, for organisations where this doesn't apply (such as governments and non-profits), the billion-dollar-company will be used as a reference for my judgement on whether it counts (e.g. does it have about the same number of employees as a $1b company, is it a leader among its type of organisation)

• What counts as a crisis: anything that puts the organisation in serious risk (>25%, as judged by a suitable market or clear consensus) of losing more than 50% of its "value" "quickly" (where "value" is used in a reference-class way as above for not for-profit companies, e.g. using employee count. "quickly" means "within roughly 3 months"). Or, falls back to my judgement (plus arguments in the comments) in the case where this is clearly a category error for the crisis in question

• What counts as "effective altruism related": this is the most subjective, open to suggestions for operationalising this

• What counts as November 2024: the crisis must start OR end in November 2024 (UTC). The market will run until 31st December to judge whether events that start in November turn out to have been part of a crisis. "Starting" can mean "coming to a head" for the case where a minor crisis has been trundling along but then becomes much bigger, and "ending" can mean "mostly calmed down" in the case where it isn't completely resolved