In Machines of Loving Grace: How Machines Could Transform the World for the Better (October 11, 2024) Dario Amodei writes:

What powerful AI (I dislike the term AGI) will look like, and when (or if) it will arrive, is a huge topic in itself. It’s one I’ve discussed publicly and could write a completely separate essay on (I probably will at some point).

This question asks:

Will Dario Amodei write and publish an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 11, 2027?

I will refrain from participating in this market to avoid bias when judging the resolution.

To address some potential edge cases up front:

• Dario Amodei need only be a primary co-author for the essay to count. (If Dario is the 4th author, or if I judge that it primarily represents the views of his co-authors rather than his, it will not count.)

• The following essays would all count and trigger positive resolution:

  • An essay that focuses only on what powerful AI will look like without detailed discussion of when it will arrive.

  • An essay that focuses only on when powerful AI will arrive without more detailed discussion of what that powerful AI will look like.

  • An essay that primarily focuses on the risks of powerful AI, but that also describes what powerful AI is in more detail (or at least as much new detail) as in "The Machines of Loving Grace".

  • An essay that primarily focuses on the risks of powerful AI that also describes in detail when those risks will occur, i.e. when powerful AI will occur.

Update Nov 9, 2024: The title was updated to more accurately reflect the resolution criteria from the original "Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and when (or if) it will arrive, by October 2027?" to "Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?"