I think 50% is a good number because source energy is much higher than useful energy. Assuming batteries are used very efficiently with heat pumps, electric motors or even resistant heat getting very good conversion to useful work meaning the scales have tipped and batteries are doing more work than coal ever did in China.

This market will resolve based on comparing China's total energy output from battery storage systems to its historical peak coal energy output. Resolution will use data from China's National Energy Administration (NEA) and the National Bureau of Statistics.

Sources for tracking:

• Current clean energy trends: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-clean-energy-pushes-coal-to-record-low-53-share-of-power-in-may-2024/

• Historical coal data: https://www.stats.gov.cn/en/