@DavidJames thanks for asking. Trying to decide if it was Trump’s doing could be contentious, so I will change the question to “If Trump is elected, will the shutdown of the US AI Safety Institute be announced in 2025?”

(Current question is “If elected, will Trump shut down the US AI Safety Institute in 2025?”)

If congress passes a budget in 2025 with zero funding for a future year, that would count as announcing a shutdown, but a presidential budget request wouldn’t count.

Resolution question: What if, say, Trump cuts future funding in late 2025 but the Institute has funding through the end of the year?

Does the resolution criteria care exactly who shuts it down? Does it matter by what mechanism it is shut down?

My intuition is this depends largely on what Trump's advisors would say. Would anyone like to share any stories or commentary on this?