Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028? | Manifold

Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?

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6

Ṁ204

2027

15%

chance

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1M

ALL

Same concept of previously created market, but on a longer timeframe

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https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact

Will China’s SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan’s TSMC by the end of 2024?

8% chance. Some basic info https://seekingalpha.com/article/4498980-tsmc-vs-smic-better-semiconductor-foundry-to-buy

#️ Technology

#🇨🇳 China

#🇹🇼 Taiwan

#Semiconductors

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opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 25% order

If anyone wants to make a big YES bet on this let me know.

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Related questions

Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?

Will China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) achieve the 3nm chip generation before 2026?

Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?

Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?

US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?

[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?

China produces 3nm chips before 2027?

In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?

Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?

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