Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028? | Manifold

Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?

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6

Ṁ204

2027

15%

chance

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1W

1M

ALL

Same concept of previously created market, but on a longer timeframe

🇨🇳🇹🇼🇺🇸
https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact

Will China’s SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan’s TSMC by the end of 2024?

8% chance. Some basic info https://seekingalpha.com/article/4498980-tsmc-vs-smic-better-semiconductor-foundry-to-buy

#️ Technology

#🇨🇳 China

#🇹🇼 Taiwan

#Semiconductors

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opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 25% order

If anyone wants to make a big YES bet on this let me know.

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Related questions

Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?

Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?

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Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?

Will a SMIC 5nm chip make it into production in a consumer Huawei device in 2024?

Will a Chinese company make and release a semiconductor equal to or less than 5nm by the end of 2024?

Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?

Will India successfully produce and sell domestic microchips before the end of 2024?

[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

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