https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1742306987898200267

"I don't, particularly, predict it, because the future is rarely that predictable -- but if 2024 is the year when AI hardware scaling seems to hit a temporary wall, and further progress past GPT-4 seems to be all about algorithms, this won't surprise me. "

I won't bet. Will resolve based on council judgment in the case of disagreement. May resolve to a percentage, but hopefully not.

Resolves in March so we have more time and perspective to evaluate the preceding year.