Will Trump halve the trade deficit in his first year?
1
π22026
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the US trade deficit (seasonally adjusted) for 2025 is half or less than half of the US trade deficit for 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.
The data source for this question will be the US Census's monthly report on international trade, seen here: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf. Specifically, we will take the negation of the total trade balance from Part A, Exhibit 1.
See here for the schedule of their releases: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/schedule.html
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Trump impose large tariffs in first year?
58% chance
Will Trump reduce the trade deficit at all in his first year?
64% chance
What will Trump do on Day 1 of being President?
Trump to impose 10% tariff on all countries in first year?
14% chance
Will Trump actually establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in his first year?
37% chance
Will Trump/Elon actually decrease deficit spending by more than 1T?
29% chance
If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 50% after one year in office?
21% chance
What will Trump do in his second term? (if he wins)
How many entire government agencies will be eliminated by within one year of Trump taking office?
Trump to impose 60% tariff on China in first year?
18% chance