Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?
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2030
64%
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If the human can review the edit and choose to stop it before it's published, then it doesn't count. English Wikipedia, mainspace.

  • Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the market to resolve YES, it must be known that the edit was made by an AI.

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There have been hoaxes that lasted for ages on wikipedia. Does the AI have to be open about what it is? On the internet nobody knows you are a dog.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen hmm, well, for practical purposes, we have to know it's AI for this market to resolve, now don't we? Anyway, relevant comments: https://manifold.markets/benjaminIkuta/will-ai-be-successfully-editing-wik#JR94DkJOClMgcidGfDJf

Any progress?

I guess that's a no. This market should trade down over time, shouldn't it?

FWIW they use lots of basic bots already, so imho if they add an AI that at least e.g. detects prose as being probably-a-troll, that should count.

predicts YES

@NicholasKross this question specifies "adding substantive original cited prose"

predicts YES

@jcb oh

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-ai-be-successfully-editing-wik-11fdf1b221ac

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-ai-be-successfully-editing-wik-332bd66c0db5

https://manifold.markets/market/will-ai-be-successfully-editing-wik

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