Will the Cape declare independence before 2030?
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28
Ṁ30k
2030
12%
chance

Cape independence is the political movement to make the Western Cape province, and often other regions of the Eastern and Northern Cape provinces, an independent state from the rest of South Africa.

This market will resolve affirmatively if a political party, group, or referendum representing a plurality of the residents of the Cape (or any substantial subset of territory therein, such as Cape Town) declare their independence from South Africa before the beginning of 2030.

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predicts NO

I know there are only 12 positions at time of writing, but this being at 11% is ridiculous

There is a <1% chance of this scenario taking place.

@Dave_9000ish agreed, but there is a cost to locking mana up in NO for 7 years

predicts NO

@wylderai the automatic mana loan process should take care of that.

In other words the full bet won't be locked up for 7 years

@Dave_9000ish Was at 25% a moment ago (so of course I took a piece of the 'no' action on this).