Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?
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17
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2029
62%
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Per https://dragaera.fandom.com/wiki/Book_list, the Dragaera series is planned to have 19 books, 17 of which have been published, with Chreotha and The Last Contract remaining. Will the author, Steven Brust, successfully complete both works, with them published in any form, before January 1st, 2029?

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Cool market! Lots of liquidity if you're right

bought Ṁ200 YES

It's very close at first glance, the mean book (excluding two outliers which appear to be breaks) takes 2.14 years to write, which comes really close to 2029 (series completion would be July 2028 by my calculations). However, it appears that right after breaks Steven gets a burst of energy and writes way faster for a few books, which points towards Yes because there was a break recently. With this in mind I project the last book will release February 2028 or earlier.

In conclusion, once you look deeper, all signs point to Yes barring an apocalyptic event. But if the apocalypse happens, you won't get your mana anyway, so bet Yes so I can sell out.

Graph (x is book #, y is time spent writing after that book came out until the next book was released based on dates from Goodreads)

bought Ṁ600 YES

But what if he decides to follow in the steps of George R. R. Martin and never release the last two books?

bought Ṁ200 YES

However, it appears that right after breaks Steven gets a burst of energy and writes way faster for a few books,

a... Brust of energy. if you will.