Is there at least 90% chance that there is a Hamas command tunnel under U.N. Gaza headquarters?

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Dec 31

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According to this article: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-had-command-tunnel-under-un-gaza-hq-israeli-military-says-2024-02-10/, Israeli military says "Hamas had command tunnel under U.N. Gaza headquarters." Is there at least 90% chance that this is the case?

I will do my best to resolve this question based on credible media consensus. To avoid personal bias, I will post my reasoning in the comments ahead of close date, and if there is significant disagreement about my reasoning, I will hand over the question resolution to a credible, neutral user of my choice.

I will not buy into this market.

Update 15/03/2024: Edited the title to more accurately reflect the resolution criteria. (This is not reflective of anything else - the criteria is the same as it always has been).

#🇮🇱 Israel

#🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

#Gaza

#Information war

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Apologies in advance, I am quite busy right now and cannot guarantee I will have the time to properly look into this until later in 2025. It would help me greatly if people posted links in response to this comment either affirming or negating the thesis that there was a command tunnel there.

In order to be a "command" tunnel, and not just "a preexisting tunnel that some members of the Gaza military have been through", I assume that finding some rifles and grenades will not be sufficient?

@Panfilo Yes. It will need to be somewhere that was used for planning or commanding operations. It does not need to be a prominent command tunnel, just a command tunnel.

@Panfilo Data center seems promising.

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