Recession defined as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, as published quarterly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and taking into account any revisions made in the following two quarterly releases.
This market resolves with the same criteria as this Metaculus question:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13922/australia-to-enter-recession-before-2026/
1,000
1.00Seeming clearer the economy has slowed down quite a bit in the past month. Interested to see next set of inflation numbers + if the RBA decides to cut rates earlier than Q4 of this year as the banks expect.
Inflation has already slowed down quite a bit and the biggest movers of the CPI last time was Tobacco prices rising which seems more conducive to a crack down on illegal tobacco trade than anything.