Tracking predictions from the podcast Oh No, Ross and Carrie! episode 399. Transcript available at https://maximumfun.org/transcripts/oh-no-ross-and-carrie/transcript-oh-no-ross-and-carrie-ep-399-ross-carrie-and-psychics-predict-2024-cancer-cures-and-election-edition/
Ross Blocher: [...]You know, I feel like a lot of our predictors were onto something with AI solving a big problem. ‘Cause they keep throwing things at it, like give us potential materials. I was reading an article about this, and they just sort of extrapolated from potential combinations of atoms and said, “Here’s a bunch of materials you haven’t tried yet.” And so, I’m sure much cool stuff will come of that. So, I’m going to say—and I feel like some of our predictors had a very similar prediction, but I’ll say AI is used to brute-force a solution to a longstanding medical problem.
I will resolve according to their evaluation in 2025 ("No" for a zero on their scale, "N/A" for one, and "Yes" for two)
With the podcast ending, I can no longer simply defer to the host's judgements for the resolution. Please vote in this poll if you have thoughts on how I should resolve these markets:
1,000
1.00@traders my resolution criteria for this market failed to account for the possibility that we wouldn't get ratings from Ross and Carrie, but with the podcast having ended that now seems pretty likely. Please vote in this poll to let me know if you'd prefer me to use my judgement instead, or just resolve this market N/A.
Either way, I will not trade in this market.
@Mad They also give 1’s to partially true predictions, like maybe solving a small medical problem rather than huge. I also feel the N/A is so probable that I would rather not lock in for a solid yes or no 😃
@SonataGreen I assume that a mere attempt wouldn't count, but I will defer to Ross and Carrie's own interpretation for resolution.