I am worried the market creator will be biased to resolve this market YES or later specify resolution criteria in a way that YES is more likely given what happened with: https://manifold.markets/datachef/will-israel-annex-any-part-of-gaza

I created a similar market with fleshed out resolution criteria, so you know what you're going to get.

Edit: edited to be less inflammatory.

@Shai WTF?! there is no reason to say that. You obviously don’t know me but if you cared to look you would see I have no problem resolving markets against myself. Don’t be a jerk.

@datachef I don't mean to be a jerk but people have asked you multiple times in different threads to clarify this market.

I just don't trust you to resolve this correctly given the "annexation" market.

If you want you can copy and or modify the criteria from my market for this one.

@Shai this is a very straightforward question. It won’t be ambiguous if a settlement is started in Gaza. The question is about “breaking ground” so none of the clarifications requested make any sense, that is why I didn’t reply. Breaking ground is simple starting and it could be stopped a day later and it still broke ground. Like why is this not self evident??

@Shai so unless ground is broken it will resolve no. It is in fact jerky to presume my resolution because there is not detailed criteria. If you want more details fine, but there is no reason to make aspersions on me as a dishonest person. That is bullshit.

@datachef Will the construction of an army base count? What if "hilltop youth" set up a tent or two illegally and are removed in the morning? What if the construction is intended to be used by palestinians?

@datachef In case you missed it I edited the original comment to be less inflammatory. Sorry for how I initially worded it you were right to be upset.

@Shai Tents are temporary and not a settlement. They don’t “break griund”. The army base woukd be annexation not a settlement in my opinion, which is part of the reason for the two different questions which I believe you inquired about earlier. Make sense?

@Shai I hadn’t noticed so I appreciate you saying that. And I also appreciate the specific questions about edge cases. That is always helpful to everyone and better than a genral request for detailed criteria imo.

@datachef Ok thanks for the clarification. Israeli construction not intended to be used by Israeli citizens won't count either right?

So if an Israeli citizen crosses into the strip and begins to dig the foundation for construction that will count even if he is later stopped by the Israeli government?

Can you clarify the resolution criteria? Does it have to be official? What if some settlers cross the border and set a settlement? What if the army remove them by force?

Currently there is no criteria

@CarmelHadar @datachef clarify this please