https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn8xvj108z9o

Hi @Bayesian

I would argue this:

the legislation states that “the State of Israel will apply its laws and sovereignty to the settlement areas in Judea and Samaria, in order to establish the status of these areas as an inseparable part of the sovereign State of Israel.”

Counts as “proclaims its sovereignty over territory of the West Bank”

When it comes to “official channel”

-            In favour of YES: the bill already passed the preliminary reading step in Israel Knesset and therefore is already public and included in headlines by the press

-            In favour of NO: The bill still must pass three additional readings to become law.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/rebelling-against-pm-mks-pass-preliminary-reading-of-west-bank-annexation-bill/

How do you see it?

@Bayesian I recall this comment "if israel through an official channel declares its sovereignty over territory hitherto outside its domain, whether it has legal implications or not, I think it would count"

so, I assume we don't have to wait for a legally binding final law to resolve

... but it is unclear whether you will count this Knesset bill as "official chanel"

International reactions examples:

"Jordan condemns Israel’s preliminary approval of West Bank annexation" (22 Oct AlJazeera)

Link from official channel (Knesset.gov.il):

Two bills approved in preliminary reading—one for application of sovereignty to Judea and Samaria settlement regions, and the other for application of sovereignty to Ma’ale Adumim

I would say the Knesset official website counts as an official channel

The Knesset – the Israeli house of representatives – is the legislative authority and the sole governmental body with the power of legislation. It also has a constituent role in the creation of a constitution for the State of Israel. The Knesset also supervises the work of the government (the executive branch) and carries out several quasi-judicial roles. As an electorate body, the Knesset elects the President of the State and the State Comptroller.

Trump said no

@nathanwei But maybe yes, if the deal falls through.

@nathanwei Trump also said:

• aid should flow into Gaza

• war should be declared over

• fire should cease

and Israel made opposite moves in all of them

@traders

The Knesset is likely to pass a bill regarding annexation today. However, that bill is merely declarative, and have no legal implications.

I do not think that such a bill should result in a Yes resolution for this market.

@Bayesian what is your opinion on that?

if israel through an official channel declares its sovereignty over territory hitherto outside its domain, whether it has legal implications or not, I think it would count, per the stated resolution criteria? Ig could you explain why you interpret the resolution criteria to require legal implications, I likely will be swayed in this specific case that it isn’t sufficient depending on the details, since the market seems confident of this, but I’d like to understand more the reason behind your perspective

@Bayesian I made a mistake translating it to a “bill”. What passed yesterday is basically a statement, not a bill.

The statement says that the west bank is inseparable part of Israel, and Israeli sovereignty should be applied to it (I’m paraphrasing).

If it would have been a bill that would actually applied said sovereignty, this would have been another thing.

De jure, Israeli law still doesn’t apply in the west bank (unlike Golan heights, for example).

@traders

Less than six months to pass a historic annexation bill with a minority coalition? How do you envision this happening, politically ?

I believe these odds are way too high.

@Lemming Knesset passed the bills today:

Application of Sovereignty to Ma'ale Adumim Bill - 32 YES against 9 NO
Application of the State of Israel's Sovereignty to Judea and Samaria Regions Bill - 25 YES agaisnt 24 NO

For sure this is only the first step of a lengthy legislative process. But I would say it already meets the "through some official channel, Israel proclaims its sovereignty over territory of the West Bank"

----
MK Maoz, the bill's sponsor: “... By applying sovereignty to Judea and Samaria we are making a repair that is long overdue. Since the Government has tarried, it is our role as Members of Knesset to do so."
----

Then, they voted YES, and they posted the message above to their official website.

https://x.com/Lazar_Berman/status/1938242044532822220

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_Israeli_annexation_of_the_West_Bank

It clearly has not happened yet. Israel has not proclaimed sovereignty.

@nathanwei Israel has approved settlements through official channels.

@BrunoJ Have they proclaimed sovereignty over any new territory? Is your claim that Israel proclaims sovereignty exactly over the parts of Area C where there are settlements?

@BrunoJ The status regarding sovereignty of those areas hasn't changed. They have not been incorporated into Israel proper under Israeli law. The [re]construction of residential areas has nothing to do with whether annexation has occurred. Annexation does not require settlement construction, and settlement construction doesn't create a proclamation of sovereignty.

@nathanwei there are two bills, with different territorial claims and levels of support

"The city of Ma'ale Adumim was established in 1977, and over the years it has grown into a city of approximately 40,000 residents. The city is located about seven kilometers east of Jerusalem, along the Jerusalem–Dead Sea road, at a strategically important crossroads that is vital both for securing the route to Jerusalem and as a central area connecting the Jordan Valley, the Judean Desert, and Jerusalem. Ma'ale Adumim is situated in an area that has always been an inseparable part of the historical Land of Israel."
preliminary reading passed 32 YES - 9 NO

"all the settlement regions in Judea and Samaria"
preliminary reading passed 25 YES - 24 NO

https://chatgpt.com/share/683baa77-6668-8009-81b3-3950f4f1f31f

@Bayesian GPT is reliable here.

@nathanwei "formally" is doing a lot of heavy work here.

@nathanwei https://chatgpt.com/share/683bb448-3e60-8002-884b-cbde6f4347b8

@BrunoJ Obviously doesn’t count. “A step towards de facto annexation” does not count come on.

@nathanwei Is the Ukraine war a war?

@BrunoJ Yes, but this is a false equivalence. Annexation is a legal term.

@BrunoJ How much of the West Bank has Israel annexed so far? It's just East Jerusalem.

@BrunoJ Anyway, read the market description.

"The market resolves YES if through some official channel, Israel proclaims its sovereignty over territory of the West Bank hitherto outside its domain, before 2026."

Has Israel proclaimed sovereignty? No they have not. To use your dumb analogy, the market was "Russia declares war on Ukraine" then how would it resolve?

@nathanwei

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/annexation

@BrunoJ Hasn't Israel annexed all of Area C already then if you use that definition? Is this new?

"The market resolves YES if through some official channel, Israel proclaims its sovereignty over territory of the West Bank hitherto outside its domain, before 2026."

Has Israel proclaimed sovereignty?

@nathanwei No need to be rude. Is the official approval of settlements not an official act?

@BrunoJ Of course it is. Is Area C "hithero outside of its domain"? Under Oslo Israel already fully controls Area C. If this is your definition of "annexation", then Area C already has been annexed.

@BrunoJ Has Israel proclaimed its sovereignty? No. Israel does not claim sovereignty in Area C. Certainly it's not true that they claim sovereignty on the parts of Area C with the settlements and not the other parts. Huh?

@BrunoJ The Ukraine war is a war, but Russia didn’t issue a formal declaration. This is tough to call an annexation because 1. Generally the mechanisms by which settlements expand are by land purchases and such, not by forcibly expelling any current occupants, 2. Israel has explicitly annexed land before (East Jerusalem) and it didn’t look like this.