Will I be convinced that Manifold should disallow bots from taking certain actions on sports markets?
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See my commentary on:
I don't currently believe Manifold should disallow bots on sports markets in the ways described in the above question.
By 2025, will I change my mind based on persuasive arguments and/or evidence?
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@atmidnight I’m sympathetic to the argument but still believe that the mission of Manifold should be to provide the most accurate probabilities possible about the future. Disallowing bots would be counterproductive to that mission. The fact sports markets are a target for bots simply means there are already good mechanisms elsewhere for predicting their future outcomes. Just because Manifold is less useful for sports markets doesn’t mean sports markets should be made more inefficient.
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