Will the Conservative Party of Canada form a Majority Government after the 45th Canadian Federal Election?
Plus
63
Ṁ84722026
90%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The 45th Canadian federal election is scheduled to take place on or before October 20, 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons and decide the next Prime Minister of Canada.
Will Pierre Poilievre and the CPC be able to defeat Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party to establish a MAJORITY government.
For market to resolve as YES, the CPC must win over half of the seats in the Canadian House of Commons (over 169 seats out of 338 available seats). If the CPC does not win the election OR forms a minority government (169 seats or less out of 338 available seats), market will resolve as NO.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
Current polling odds of CPC majority are 83%. Market seems underpriced. https://338canada.com/federal.htm
Related questions
Related questions
Will the Conservative Party of Canada win a parliamentary supermajority in next federal election?
24% chance
Will the Conservatives win at least 40% of the vote in Canada's next federal election?
80% chance
Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?
6% chance
Will Justin Trudeau lead the Liberal Party in the next federal election in Canada?
54% chance
(Canada) Will the Liberals poll within 10 points of the Conservatives before next Federal Election?
37% chance
Will the Liberal Party of Canada be the official opposition after the next Canadian election?
77% chance
Will the Conservative Party still exist in 2044?
74% chance
Will the NDP lose seats in Canada's next federal election? (Oct 2025 or earlier)
61% chance
Which Canadian political party will win the 2nd most seats in next federal election?
Will there be a successful non-confidence vote in the Canadian Parliament before the next general election in Oct2025
51% chance