On February 29th, 115 Palestinians died as a result of an incident as aid trucks entered Gaza City. Hamas claims Israel fired into the crowd. Israel claims no responsibility, and says the vast majority of casualties were from "stampeding." Israel does claim that the IDF fired on a small number of civilians who were a significant threat to their safety.
Resolves YES if it is determined that Israel fired into the crowd indiscriminately. If the answer is unclear, I will resolve it to my best guess of the median informed observers' subjective probability based on all reliable sources. This market is similar to the "Did the IDF just blow up a hospital" market from a few months ago.
I am happy to move the resolution date if needed. I will not trade on this market.
Various reporting on the incident:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/08/world/middleeast/israel-military-gaza-aid-convoy-report.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-review-gaza-aid-convoy-deaths-finds-most-killed-stampede-2024-03-03/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/dozens-of-gazans-said-killed-in-stampede-for-aid-idf-opens-fire-blamed-for-deaths/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/29/dozens-killed-injured-by-israeli-fire-in-gaza-while-collecting-food-aid
1,000
1.00I think the Wikipedia article gives a good overview of the results of many of the investigations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flour_massacre
In particular:
"An investigation by the Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor found that many bullets from "a sample of 200 dead and injured" as well at the massacre site were 5.56ร45mm NATO bullets, which are used in assault rifles and machine guns by the Israeli military."
CNN called out inconsistencies and secrecy from the IDF around the incident, using geolocation and metadata. The experts from HRW and MSU verified that the gunfire came from the IDF tanksโ direction two minutes before the supposed warning shots. In the morning, there were fresh bullet wounds in some of the crowd, who did not stand out as obvious threats.