Who will win the next valid Romanian presidential election?

Plus

221

Ṁ2m

2100

ALL

99%

Nicușor Dan

Will resolve when the next elected president of Romania is inaugurated.

It doesn't matter whether any elections are annulled before that happens.

Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve upon inauguration. It will not resolve based solely on the validation of election results by the Constitutional Court.

Get

1,000

and

1.00

31 Comments

Sort by:

Contrary to the unrequested "contribution" of an AI, I am NOT "about to resolve the market". As I said, I will normally resolve it in a matter of weeks, when the new president is supposed be inaugurated.

View original context

Resolve? https://www.ccr.ro/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Hotarare_43_2025.pdf

@Transparent No. This document does not say he is inaugurated, only that he is president-elect. He is scheduled to be inaugurated on May 26th.

https://hotnews.ro/nicusor-dan-va-fi-investit-luni-cand-a-fost-stabilita-sedinta-parlamentului-1981462

@ezra290 Also, here's why I don't resolve based on validation of the result by the Constitutional Court: they validated the result of the first round held in November but annulled the election four days later.
https://www.juridice.ro/763340/ccr-valideaza-rezultatul-alegerilor-prezidentiale-in-cadrul-primului-tur-de-scrutin.html

The exact date of the inauguration has apparently not been announced yet, but it's possible that it will happen sooner than I thought, in a matter of days

@ezra290 Regarding the AI contribution, "iț gon". It was in the market's description.

@ezra290 lol, now they wrote a correct contribution.

A majority of the cast votes have now been counted for Nicușor Dan. If nothing crazy happens (which is not guaranteed), he will be inaugurated as President of Romania in a few weeks. In accordance to the rules of this market, it would then be resolved.

Resolves on inauguration, hopefully nothing awful happens. Should be priced in though.

LMAO Nicușor Dan was first in the world at the IMO?!

https://x.com/RuxandraTeslo/status/1924206417000403328

@bens yep

@bens my guy Dan had it all

Simionover

@Membrrr it's gone

@meineusername iykyk

Close race in Ammon Lam's platinum league

sold Ṁ3,859 Nicușor Dan YES

@Simon74fe what's funny is @MaxA might be the best forecaster in this screenshot, but he just started on Manifold like 2 months ago

@bens I’m ok with being second since Ammon got all that mana from betting on the good guy. Just need the results to hold.

And thanks to you I’m now getting the kind of followers that will force me into serious markets instead of exploiting various inefficiencies around Formula 1 or Eurovision.

Ah you see I jinxed it for the good of the liberal world order. You're welcome, europe!

@Joshua thanks!

Can someone explain why Joshua and Jackson Polack dumped millions of manas to Ammon Lam? Is it some kind of money laundering deal?

@jim idk about joshua but second guy has a history of high profile pathological overconfidence so it's just hubris for him not crime

bought Ṁ1,000 Nicușor Dan YES

@jim I was there on the #lounge channel on the Discord server and it seemed legit

we are posting on a site that essentially exists to provide a track record of people's over/under-confidence there's no need to speculate we can check anyone's profile to see if that's in fact true