Probably nature/evolution so far has gotten the maximum, and more inteligence will come only by other means...

By when?

@PeterBarnett Ever. Seems a lot of uncertainty about how long this will take. But the market will resolve YES as soon as they do it, and NO if they don't get off the ground or stop. If they do get off the ground it'll resolve NO if they say they're not longer pursuing research.

And "they" here just means whoever is doing the research. If the guy who wrote this post dies, or the starts a company, but then the lab is transferred to another company it will not resolve NO (unless they decide to give up on the project).

@hmys oh 2025 is not the right close date?

+1 that the market should ensure resolution within some non-infinite period of time

betting no; if it works I'll use my mega-brain to make up the lost profit

I bumped into the guy who wrote this and it seems there is still ongoing research. 2025 is very soon and 1 stddev is a LOT. I'd like to see 2-5-10 year markets with smaller but sustained and validated gains.