The market is substantially underestimating the probability of China flat out invading Taiwan.

Jaded Americans, who don't want anything that much and certainly would not die for a 3nm fab, are struggling to comprehend how an ethno-nationalist industrial superpower would use violence to retake what it sees as stolen property.

Other methods of reunification are possible (≈10% chance), but violence is being unfairly discounted due to recency bias and the popular but flawed reasoning that nuclear weapons will prevent direct great power conflict.