Donald Trump has shifted rapidly over the last month or two from presenting as "racist old man who watches too much Fox News and brags about barely passing his dementia screening" to presenting as someone who cannot string words together or process what is happening around him.

One explanation would be that this is literally what has happened to him: he is experiencing a major exacerbation in some form of dementia. Another explanation would be that he is a canny politician who is backed into a corner, does not expect to win the election, and knows that one of the main remaining escape routes from his various criminal charges is to be found incompetent to stand trial.

This will resolve YES if, by the close date (a year from this writing), both of the following are true:

• Trump avoids a trial or custodial sentence, or receives a reduced sentence, either because of his poor health or incompetence (as stated by a judge) OR by winning the election

• Trump subsequently appears to recover from his dementia, speaking at least as clearly as he did in early 2024 and appearing to understand what is going on around him. If this happens, I expect there to be a consensus in the news about it, and some commentary to the effect that he had previously been faking.

Otherwise it will resolve NO.