Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?
Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?
➕
Plus
371
Ṁ73k
2030
46%
Elon Musk
30%
Other
9%
Jensen Huang
5%
Sam Altman
2%
Bernard Arnault
1.6%
Jeff Bezos
1.5%
Donald Trump
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00


Sort by:
answered1y
Satoshi Nakamoto

@itsTomekK What happens if their identity and net worth aren't known at the time but become known much later?

7mo

@TheAllMemeingEye depends on the resolution source

7mo

@itsTomekK If Forbes doesn't update the list, other most popular such list will be used

@itsTomekK right, thanks 👍

bought Ṁ5 Vitalik Buterin YES1y

buterin and nakamoto are so underpriced in this market...their path to getting rich is more about ecosystem growth than anyone else on this list (a.k.a more people working for them), and 2030 is multiple bull markets and a shit ton of Ethereum scaling infrastructure away from now

1y

Some research:

In 2023, it was Arnault & family. Arnault previously hadn't cracked the top 10 since 10th place in 2013.
In 2022, it was Elon Musk.
For 2018-2021, it was Jeff Bezos.
For 2014-2017, it was Bill Gates and Bezos didn't even crack the Top 10 until 2016.
In 2010, it was Carlos Slim & family (#8 last year) and Gates was 2nd (#1 in 1997-2007 and 2009) Slim topped the list until 2014.
In 2005, it was Bill Gates and Carlos Slim was in 4th place.
For 1991-1996, it was the Walton family. The Waltons would top the list today if combined.

answered1y
me
1y

How does me option works? Like if any one of the traders win?

1y

@ftkurt I guess if Hanchi Sun wins!?

I will not resolve to such answer anyway.

answered1y
Sam Altman
1y

Who gets rich if OpenAI becomes a trillion-dollar company? Is it Sama? Or rather Satya Nadella?

1y

@marktwse Bill Gates ;)

1y

@itsTomekK interestingly, Gates would already be a trillionaire if he didn't diversify

1y

What if the richest person is a trillionaire, will he/she still count?

1y
1y

Forbes still has SBF near the top of their "crypto" list :/

1y

Elon owned 42% of spacex recently and it could easily be worth more than 2T by 2030

1y

@ZacharyAustin

it could easily be worth more than 2T by 2030

I don't believe that this will be the case, assign ~25% to this.

1y

@ZacharyAustin ok lets see

1y
1y

@Aizej Created the same market but for spaceX: https://manifold.markets/NiplavYushtun/will-spacex-be-worth-more-than-2t-b, which was the company your top-level comment mentioned.

1y
Comment hidden

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.