Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing? | Manifold

Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?

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Ṁ701

2031

41%

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1M

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Resolves to, uh, consensus of machine learning experts when the first AGI is known

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There's a lot of things that are potentially hard to connect clearly here

bought Ṁ75 YES

I think this is pretty likely. inference-time compute will be used a lot in the SOTA models

If someone still agrees with the <15% figure, bet against me

however they'll almost certainly never confirm that o1 comes out of the Q* developments so will the o1 tech count for the purpose of this market or no?

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Will we get AGI before 2029?

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Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Will Q* be legally considered AGI?

Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?

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Will AI create the first AGI?

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