Will a former US president accuse Trump of interfering with the 2026 mid-term elections, before March 2027?
Will a former US president accuse Trump of interfering with the 2026 mid-term elections, before March 2027?
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Ṁ12172027
23%
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This market resolves YES if any living former US president (at most: Biden, Obama, Bush, Clinton) makes a public statement explicitly accusing Donald Trump of stealing, rigging, or fraudulently manipulating the 2026 mid-term elections. The accusation must be made in a verifiable public forum such as a speech, interview, social media post, or official statement.
The accusation must specifically claim that Trump (either personally or through his direction/influence) was responsible for election theft or fraud affecting the 2026 mid-term results.
General comments about election integrity concerns without directly accusing Trump will not qualify for YES resolution.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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