+5 in 15 days

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/03/unknown-disease-kills-people-south-west-drc-democratic-republic-of-the-congo

Currently at 55 and growing slowly but steadily.

With the resolution criteria being 100 total by EoY 2025 seems very likely that it will be achieved. Biggest risk is resolution criteria changing.

Informative BlueSky thread on waste waster results

"1/ Influenza wastewater activity levels are currently low across the US, aside from conspicuous areas in CA where

#H5N1 is spreading in dairy cows. A deeper dive into the Wastewater Scan data paints a very concerning picture and should add to our sense of urgency."

100 cases cumulative or concurrent? If we slowly get up to finding 100 people who've ever had it but we don't have a lot of people with it at the same time, that's not really an outbreak, certainly not a large-scale one.

@WilliamGunn the resolution criteria link to a data source, which appears to be cumulative

@jacksonpolack ok, so that's neither an outbreak nor large-scale. Just mentioning this because I've been tripped up by resolution criteria very different from the headline.

I edited the title to include "100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases"

@jacksonpolack thanks! Back when I first asked the question, 100 seemed pretty large and unlikely, yet here we are.

Link in description 404s, should probably be https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fbird-flu%2Fphp%2Favian-flu-summary%2Findex.html

which lists 53 human cases

https://bsky.app/profile/scottehensley.bsky.social/post/3lb36uy5a7k25

https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/east-bay-child-tests-positive-for-bird-flu/

What is the base-rate of such events?

@nic_kup To be more accurate I am looking for something like: in years where there were >10 cases of birdflu what is the likelihood of >100 cases?

We're at 9 cases so far.