H5N1

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Will there be a "large-scale bird flu outbreak" (100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases) in the US by the end of 2025?90% chance

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How many H5N1 human cases will there be in the USA by end of 2025, according to CDC?

6%

Under 101 cases

57%

101 - 1000 cases

18%

1001 - 10,000 cases

6%

10,001 - 100,000 cases

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First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by May 1st 202526% chance

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Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?35% chance

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Will there be more than 1,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 bird flu in the US by the end of 2025?39% chance

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Will there be 10k or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?14% chance

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Raw milk sales banned in additional US states due to H5N1 before February 1, 202534% chance

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Will 1000 herds of livestock be infected by H5N1 by the end of March 2025?88% chance

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What will be the CDC’s official mortality rate of H5N1 on January 1st, 2026?

4%

>30%

12%

15-30%

20%

5-15%

69%

<5%

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Will the US approve an H5N1 vaccine for any group of people before a pandemic starts?26% chance

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IF RFK is HHS Secretary and H5N1 transmits human-to-human in the US, will he try to curtail vaccine production?37% chance

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Will an H5N1 mRNA vaccine be developed and enter "late stage" human trials (or wider release) by July 2025?61% chance

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