Deepseek

Premium

Will DeepSeek go on Dwarkesh Podcast in 2025?16% chance

Plus

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?5% chance

Plus

Will Grok 3 beat DeepSeek R1 on the chatbot leaderboard?YES

Mini

Will DeepSeek remain available on US iOS App Store until January 1, 2026? (no ban or removal)78% chance

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When will DeepSeek release R2?

25%

Before May 2025

88%

Before June 2025

93%

Before July 2025

94%

Before August 2025

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Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?12% chance

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