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Deepseek
Joshua
SG
Premium
Will DeepSeek go on Dwarkesh Podcast in 2025?
20%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
40
á¹€10k
Zvi Mowshowitz
Plus
Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
5%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
36
á¹€1k
chris (strutheo)
Plus
Will Grok 3 beat DeepSeek R1 on the chatbot leaderboard?
99%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
107
á¹€1.1k
Paul Habermas
Mini
Will DeepSeek remain available on US iOS App Store until January 1, 2026? (no ban or removal)
78%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
31
á¹€100
Bayesian
Plus
When will DeepSeek release R2?
61%
Before April 2025
Yes
No
Open options
85%
Before May 2025
Yes
No
Open options
89%
Before June 2025
Yes
No
Open options
90%
Before July 2025
Yes
No
Open options
See 7 more answers
53
á¹€1.1k
Zvi Mowshowitz
Plus
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
12%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
49
á¹€1.5k
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