Deepseek

Premium

Will DeepSeek go on Dwarkesh Podcast in 2025?6% chance

Plus

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?3% chance

Plus

Will Grok 3 beat DeepSeek R1 on the chatbot leaderboard?YES

Mini

Will DeepSeek remain available on US iOS App Store until January 1, 2026? (no ban or removal)81% chance

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When will DeepSeek release R2?

8%

Before November 2025

19%

Before December 2025

26%

Before 2026

30%

Before February 2026

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Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?7% chance

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