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Israel Ceasefire

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Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire deal before Trump’s inauguration?YES
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When will the hostilities in Gaza end?
5%
July 2025 or earlier
15%
August 2025 or earlier
17%
September 2025 or earlier
18%
October 2025 or earlier
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When will Gaza have a ceasefire? (before end of which month?) [Israel Hamas Conflict]
Resolved
NO
Before the end of March 2024
Resolved
NO
Before the end of Apr 2024
Resolved
NO
Before the end of May 2024
Resolved
NO
Before the end of July 2024
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Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?39% chance
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Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?37% chance
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[Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?18% chance
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Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?19% chance
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