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Thinking Machines to top Chatbot Arena by EOY 2026?
9
Ṁ411
2026
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if a model created by Thinking Machines reaches the top of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by EOY 2026.

Background

Thinking Machines Lab is a new AI company whose CEO is Mira Murati (former CTO of OpenAI).

#AI
#️ Technology
#OpenAI
#AI Impacts
#Thinking Machines
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Ṁ1,000
and
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3 Comments
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3%

@Bayesian that's very high

true but idk i'm not good with small probabilities

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