Will humans say the largest prime number before we find the next one?
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17
Ṁ671
Dec 31
28%
chance
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Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
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Assuming you'll follow the details of what the Say the Prime organizers are doing, here's a clarification I get from Ayliean:

I suggest changing the close date of this market by several years. The next record prime might well take a decade to find.

I mean, there might even not be any Mersenne primes besides the ones we already know 😈

To be clear, it is proven that there are infinitely many primes, and infinitely many of them are larger than the one that was recently found.

We just don't know if there are any undiscovered primes which are one less than a power of 2, which is the special form of the new one.

opened a Ṁ1 NO at 48% order

always bet against mass human collaborations

bought Ṁ10 NO from 43% to 42%

@mattyb which side does that apply to? Large primes are not found by lone geniuses, and if aliens know them they sure as hell aren't telling us. It's also mass human collaboration.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@mattyb *unpaid

@IasonKoukas same question as above 😂

@BrunoParga finding the prime has some reward as prestige. Saying it doesn't

@IasonKoukas actually I've remembered it's not just prestige, there's a cash prize as well. At least it existed for previous primes, I don't know if whoever gave it still does.

On the other hand, all that it costs each person to say the prime is a one-shot five-minute span. Looking for the primes requires both fixed and ongoing costs - machines and power - for years and years on end, and the vast majority of the people involved won't win anything. The ones that contribute factoring work to the project can't win the prize.

Maybe there's the conception that this prime search is something like the LHC. It's not. It's mostly pointless, same as saying it.