Will the largest known prime number be non-Mersenne before 2030?
Mini
7
Ṁ1502030
32%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Since 1992, the largest known prime number has been a Mersenne prime. Will the largest known prime number be non-Mersenne at any time before 2030?
This market will resolve YES if it becomes publicly known that a number not of the form 2^n - 1, where n is an integer, is proven to be prime, and is larger than all other publicly known primes at the time, before 2030 begins in any timezone.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Will a non-Mersenne prime become the largest known prime at some point before 2030-01-01?
40% chance
Will there be a new largest known prime number by the end of 2025? (Last one - Oct 21 2024)
33% chance
Will the ordering of the known Mersenne primes be proved by 2030?
91% chance
Will humans say the largest prime number before we find the next one?
6% chance
Are there infinitely many Mersenne primes?
95% chance
Does there exist more than 51 Mersenne primes below 2^136279841-1?
10% chance
Will the prime factors of RSA-2048 be known before 2030?
13% chance
Will the prime factors of RSA-1024 be known by 2030?
21% chance
Will a projective plane of non-prime-power order be discovered before 2026?
5% chance
Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?
51% chance