This market will resolve based on materials released here: https://competition-cases.ec.europa.eu/search?caseInstrument=InstrumentDMA&sortField=caseLastDecisionDate&sortOrder=DESC

If the Commission does not start an investigation in 2024 it will resolve NO. If they do start or announce an investigation, the resolution will wait for the result of that.

If the Commission finds non-compliance of the iOS or iPadOS CPS, but e.g. the courts overrule a fine based on it, the market will still resolve YES.

I'll do my best to respond to hypotheticals in the comments, and update the description with clarifications. I will not trade so as to remain unbiased.

2024/03/07 Edit: The App Store changes announced not long before the creation of the question, and that the market refers to, aim to bring the iOS (and maybe iPadOS) platform in compliance with the DMA.

The Commission has found Apple's anti-steering App Store policy anti-competitive in the music-streaming industry (Spotify). This has to do with the App Store platform and is not related to the DMA. For these two reasons it isn't related to this market. (If, the decision finds App Store non-compliant, but it's clear from the decision that it has to do with the new changes e.g. alternative payment options, the new business terms... I will resolve YES.)

I think this was clear when the news were fresher, but with this clarification it should stay clear as the year goes on.