Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if President Donald Trump reduces any existing tariffs on Chinese imports before January 1, 2026. It resolves to NO if no reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports occurs during this timeframe.

Background

In April 2025, President Trump increased tariffs on Chinese imports in response to China's retaliatory measures, which included a 34% additional tariff on U.S. goods. The Trump administration's trade strategy with China focuses on reducing bilateral trade and ensuring greater balance in trade practices.

The current administration has indicated that tariff modifications would depend on trading partners' actions. If China takes steps to remedy non-reciprocal trade arrangements and aligns with U.S. economic and national security interests, President Trump has the authority to decrease tariffs.

Considerations

Any reduction in tariffs would likely require significant concessions from China to address trade practices and other economic concerns that the Trump administration has highlighted as problematic.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if President Donald Trump reduces any existing tariffs on Chinese imports before January 1, 2026. It resolves to NO if no reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports occurs during this timeframe.

Background

In April 2025, President Trump increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 104%, following China's retaliatory measures. The Trump administration has stated that tariff modifications could occur if trading partners, including China, take significant steps to address non-reciprocal trade practices and align with U.S. economic and national security interests.

Considerations

Any reduction in tariffs would likely require significant concessions from China to address trade practices and other economic concerns that the Trump administration has highlighted as problematic. As of now, there is no evidence of such concessions from China leading to a reduction in tariffs.