Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve positively if more than 500 combatants of any side in any potential armed conflict in the Balkans are reported KIA by at least 3 credible news outlets or governmental organizations (BBC, Reuters, the UN, EU, NATO, etc.) before January 1, 2025. If multiple armed conflicts occur within the specified time frame, the question will resolve positively if the sum of combatant casualties in all conflicts exceeds 500.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.