Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if at least two of the three conditions outlined below are satisfied.

This question will also resolve as Yes if Belarus ceases being an independent country and is officially incorporated into Russia.

This question will resolve as No if one or fewer of the three conditions below are satisfied.

Condition 1 (Passportization): There are media reports by credible sources that Russian passports are handed out to Belarusian citizens on a widespread basis.

Condition 2 (Single Monetary Currency): The official currency of Belarus and Russia is the same.

Condition 3 (Common Foreign Policy): There are media reports by credible sources that report that Russia is directing Belarus’ foreign policy. Condition 3 also resolves if the Belarusian Foreign Office or the office of the President of Belarus are subsumed in their Russian counterparts or merged. Condition 3 also resolves if there are credible reports that the Russian military has assumed de-facto control over the Belarusian military

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.