Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve positive if at any point between now and 1 Jan 2026 shares of at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla) close at least 50% below their all-time high.

The question shall be resolved by using the daily closing share prices available from Yahoo Finance under the 'historical data' tab or, at the discretion of Metaculus admins, any other credible source of share price data.

Whatever data source is used should be adjusted for share splits, so that this question does not resolve positive just because a few of the Magnificent Seven decide to do a stock split (ie offer N new shares for each old share).

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.