This will resolve somewhat subjectively to my best guess.

I may resolve PROB if precise numbers aren't knowable.

I won't trade after setting initial probabilities

Measured starting from Dec 1, 2025

I will include estimates of smuggled chips (with a moderately high bar for evidence and estimates).

If other superior blackwell models are exported (e.g. B300), I will also count the number of B30A equivalents (B300 ~= 2x B30A). RTX6000D will not count.