This prediction will resolve as “Yes” if, between 2024-01-01 and 2024-12-31, at least 100,000 additional Russian soldiers are mobilized, as confirmed by reliable third-party sources such as NATO, the UN, the US State Department, or the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The mobilization must be specifically related to the war in Ukraine, rather than the regular 12-month conscription that happens every year. This confirmation must be verifiable and come from a reliable source, not just from Russian government sources, in order for the prediction to resolve as “Yes.” The prediction will resolve as “No” if the above criteria are not met. If there is a lack of consensus on how many soldiers were mobilized during 2024, this market will resolve as 'N/A'.
For context, ~300k soldiers were mobilized by Russia in 2022. No soldiers were mobilized in 2023 (see last years question).
Note that the soldiers explicitly have to "mobilized", so "volunteers"/"kontraktniki" are excluded.
Clarification: the mobilization must be explicitly involuntary. People choosing to sign up to fight against Ukraine voluntarily don't count. What's "voluntary" is a spectrum but at the very least it requires a threat of violence or threat of imprisonment for said person or someone in their family.
1,000
1.00No soldiers were mobilized in 2023 (see last years question).
...
- Note that the soldiers explicitly have to "mobilized", so "volunteers"/"kontraktniki" are excluded.
So, the question is about which rhetoric will be used by Kremlin rather than about the actual fact of mobilization? Or I did misunderstand the question?
@DmitryOkunev nope it’s about involuntary conscription of at least 100k troops. It would be extremely visible and impossible to hide behind any rhetoric, just like it was painfully obvious in September 2022.
I see, so the key is "involuntary". And even if the choice is to get millions of rubles and freedom from Russian prison but to volunteer -- it is not "mobilization" in this question. Thanks!
@DmitryOkunev Meduza so far thinks there's no mobilization yet: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/09/18/does-putin-s-order-to-increase-the-russian-army-by-180-000-soldiers-mean-a-new-wave-of-mobilization-is-coming as well and explicitly calls out that contract hiring is happening instead.
I don't think your distinction between kontraktniki and mobilized is very useful. 2022 mobiks were almost uncompensated, current kontraktniki get exorbitant sign up bonuses. Still Russia is obviously short on manpower. If the state decides to ramp up the coercion in whatever form (mass issuing notices, imposing restrictions, etc), whoever is targeted will likely have the kontraktnik option still on the table.
"Putin explained why Russia does not need a new mobilization", June 7th 2024
Original: https://www.rbc.ru/politics/07/06/2024/6663238e9a79474c3c7a8890
Google Translated:
Zelensky claims 300k will be mobilized this summer: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/04/03/zelensky-says-russia-plans-to-mobilize-300k-troops-by-june-a84730
Frankly, when I was reading the mobilization claims from Zelensky, I thought it was about what you call "volunteers"/"kontraktniki". So it is about the numbers of people thrown at war, not about how exactly (in the Russian bureaucratic machine) these people were delivered there. Or in other words, I interpreted "mobilization" according to the definition of the word:
> Mobilization ([...]) is the act of assembling and readying military troops and supplies for war.
Though may be I just unintentionally sanewashed the statements...