Will there be medical consensus that GLP-1 drugs have cardiovascular benefits beyond those provided via weight loss?
Will there be medical consensus that GLP-1 drugs have cardiovascular benefits beyond those provided via weight loss?
Mini
9
Ṁ872026
71%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As implied in these tweets, among other places. Closes in 3 years.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will a GLP-1 agonist diabetes / weight loss drug be the top bestselling drug in 2025?
30% chance
Will a majority government owned company introduce a new GLP-1 drug before 2040?
15% chance
Will GLP-1 agonists help stop or reverse the US obesity trend by end of 2027
81% chance
Will a drug company pay >$1m in a class action suit based on their statements about their GLP1 inhibitor by 2026?
38% chance
By 2029, will there be an FDA approval of GLP-1 for a substance use disorder?
86% chance
Will Donald Trump ever take a GLP-1 agonist (eg Ozempic, Mounjaro, Wegovy, Zepbound, etc) for weight loss
65% chance
Will Ozempic/GLP-1 Agonists become an issue with a clear partisan divide in the US in the next 5 years?
39% chance
Will a GLP-1 receptor agonist (Ozempic-like drug) be added to public water supplies in the United States by 2075?
15% chance
Will one of the GLP agonist drugs (eg Semaglutude/Wegovy Tirzepatide/Mounjaro) have a black box warning by 2025
7% chance
What fraction of US adults will regularly take GLP-1 drugs in 2030?