Will there be a blanket amnesty granted to Catalan separatists by July 2024?
Mini
8
Ṁ247
Jan 1
75%
chance

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
Sort by:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/spanish-court-applies-amnesty-law-for-first-time-to-catalan-separatists/
From your previous comment, I have no idea what cortes is, or how to assess, based on that article, whether this will resolve yes, though.

While the article is behind a paywall it reports something I was looking for.

So, regarding my questions:

  1. The Spanish Parliament (the Cortes) has passed an "amnesty law" a month ago. YES

  2. The law covers everyone facing legal prosecution stemming from the Catalan separatist movement. YES

  3. The Catalan independentist MP's are still supporting the government, so they must be content. YES

  4. The exiled politicians have not yet returned, so they seem to fear something. The problem is that the law is not a proper amnesty because the judges involved seem to be against it and have a lot of freedom in its application. Therefore it is not yet clear if amnesty will be granted in most of the cases. Still mulling on this one...

Would you say each point is worth 25%? Or you need all or else it resolves NO? Or something else

My conclusion is that the government has passed an amnesty law intended for everyone. The law has been applied to only 18 people until now. If there are no new developments before closing time I will resolve the question at 75%.

If the current reported deal goes through, will you consider that a blanket amnesty?

@JoshuaWilkes The blanket amnesty for the people involved in the 2017 independence referendum is indeed the central issue of the current deal for support of the left-wing government by the Catalan MPs. However, the answer to the question depends on whether an amnesty bill passes in the Cortes or not. I will resolve the question based on my understanding of the situation, guided by a series of questions: Has an amnesty been passed? Is it reported that more than half of the 1400 people involved are covered by the law? Does the government still have the backing of the Catalan MPs? Are the Catalan fugitives (especially Puigdemont) returning to Spain?