Exactly six months after May 1st 2024 I will calculate the returns of these choices, and the five with the best ROI will resolve evenly. OTHER will not be chosen.
An option must make a positive ROI, otherwise it resolves NO
Suggest options in the comments below
I reserve the right to refuse any suggestion
Spreadsheet to track Here
See: Which five investments here will have the best returns 6 months after May 1st 2024?
1,000
1.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,004 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,886 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,268 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1,063 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1,049 |
wow after all that reddit was the top performer with 165.88%
second place was MSTR with 140%
then GME with 101%
then Liberty broadband at 60%
interesting this is so high up, but not on the main one i am investing from
set up a spreadsheet to help track this and the other related markets: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s1OxlwEalnadLVi8z0OMdV-tToKSRUnu8NpE52AF1hQ/edit#gid=0
reminder that on may 1st i am locking new submissions. trading can continue, but no new options will be added. also, other will not be chosen to win
VPU, Vanguard utility ETF.
NVO, Novo Nordisk
How are you planning to account for dividends and splits? Add to the stock price at the end?
@traders thank you for all the help - i am working on a new version of this market , it will be out soon
in the meantime i will keep this one open, but i am removing the profit incentive and some other whalebait aspects. it is now just a normal market: 'which investment will give the best return 6 months after may 1st'
@TonyGao hmm i see. those rewards were added after betting had started anyway, and only existed for a bit before i was told the market had to be changed , i guess i could NA over that but it seems silly. any mods have an opinion? @BoltonBailey @Joshua
if people were betting only for the USD and not the mana i dont really care if they lose the mana, since they were just as likely to lose that mana on the gamble anyway, right?
What was the point of making two markets for this, it seems like they have the same resolution criteria.
Money market fund like VUSXX - invests in US government debt and currently pays ~5% interest per year.
@KevinBurke A ton of the stuff you have there is correlated, like if NVDA goes up or down TSMC is probably going to go up or down. This is not.
@KevinBurke Schwab: https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/products/swvxx
Fidelity: https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/31617H201#!
Both of these have higher fees than Vanguard but no minimum investment
@KevinBurke Wealthfront and it’s FDIC insured.
Dunno that anything will beat 5% risk free on a 6 months horizon other than a fluke.
@voodoo FDIC insurance is a bit of a red herring here, if Vanguard fails to pay out then the economy has much, much bigger problems. The government won't let $1 in a money market fund be worth less than $1, and the money market fund's holdings are like 99% US government debt, which is one of the most liquid investments in the world
@KevinBurke I don’t disagree but it’s not like you’re paying anything for it. And it’s easier to open one of those accounts than a brokerage account usually.
What is this?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00