This market emerged based on a crux that arose out a conversation about recent regulatory action against crypto exchanges, and whether scrutiny against crypto trading is likely to broaden and render certain central use-cases of crypto near-impossible in America--what has been called "operation Choke Point 2.0". Paypal's crypto features are described here and here.
Resolves YES if:
PayPal removes the ability to transfer crypto from their platform to an "external wallet address", or to receive crypto from such.
PayPal otherwise is subject to significant legal action (fines in the million dollar range or more, financial-regulatory lawsuits with similar stakes) by financial regulatory bodies due to its handling of crypto.
Resolves NO if:
None of these things happen by market close. (June 7, 2025)
Resolves N/A if:
PayPal significantly increases the breadth of its crypto services, and then is subject to legal action related to this increased breadth.
Any of this market's foundational assumptions (i.e., that paypal allows transfers to "external wallet addresses") turns out to not have been true by market open.
1,000
1.00I ultimately don't think this is a particularly significant possibility. I am minded to hedge against some overly-careful action by PayPal, but my belief is that, while financial-regulatory action against crypto may well be influenced by the sensibilities of the current administration and some generalized antipathy against crypto spurred on by the FTX scandal, these forces are not nearly strong enough to overcome the resistances in the Senate and in the court system.