What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 24 months?
Mini
7
Ṁ543
2025
7%
20-29%
11%
30-39%
13%
40-49%
20%
50-59%
30%
60-69%
18%
70-79%
1.1%
80-89%

  1. The 12 month phase 3 data indicates 75% vaccine efficacy of R21 in annual malaria sites in children at 12 months after the first dose was delivered. Phase 2b data at a 42 month timepoint showed 71% efficacy after four total doses (Abstract here, #6949). 

  2. Resolves upon publication of peer-reviewed data from the R21 team at Oxford (expected to be before September 1st, 2025).

  3. Vaccine efficacy is defined as the primary endpoint for time to clinical malaria in seasonal sites, as defined in the paper linked above.

  4. 1Day Sooner has an R21 Status Report available here that may be useful.

  5. More malaria-related questions can be found on our Manifold account here.

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I'm curious about the low estimates from early traders. Am I right in saying this market is about the next number that would appear in the top-right cell (phase 3 results for R21)?

@fwbt Hi, just stepping in to say this is correct! And yes, these estimates so far seem low to me as well, and are notably lower than the current estimates on the 48-month timepoint question here.

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