For this market to resolve to YES, one of the following requirements must be met:
Intel must confirm the existence of the problem with the processors in a public statement, which at the same time confirms that any affected customer can receive a refund for their purchase
Intel must confirm the existence of the problem with the processors in a public statement and announce recall of defective processors sold to regular customers (not datacenters, enterprise customers nor retail suppliers etc.)
Intel announces recall of defective processors sold to regular customers (not datacenters, enterprise customers nor retail suppliers etc.) and/or refunds to customers.
UPDATE 30.07.2024 19:20 UTC+1
I’ve added liquidity to market.
Added condition for market to resolve YES - now it’s fully clear that the name of the market is exactly what people expect to be.
1,000
1.00The publicly available data as of this writing:
Intel has publicly admitted (also to the press) the existence of the issue, and claims to have a full fix for not-yet-degraded CPUs via a microcode/BIOS update.
Instead Intel has extended the warranty on 24 models of 13th and 14th gen CPUs by 2 years (from 3 to 5 years). Also in the press. Multiple PC manufacturers have committed to honoring this extended warranty as well, extending this to OEM CPUs.
The terms of the warranty allow for a repair, replacement or refund, at Intel's option. However, the press statements from both Intel and manufacturers all mention "exchange", not "refund".
Intel spokesperson, when asked if Intel will issue a recall, simply stated "No."
How this maps to the resolution conditions (IMO):
Resolution conditions 1 and 2 are clearly not met, since Intel's publication confirming of the existence of the problem does not promise a refund, or announce a recall.
Intel did extend the warranty, but it is not the same as a product recall under Wikipedia's definition. There is also a clear "No" from Intel on the recall.
But they still have time to reverse course until this market's closure. So condition 3 still might be met in 2024, but I estimate its probability to be in the single digits.
Highly relevant: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTeubeCIwRw
My mana's on this being a serious silicon-level defect that forces their hand once enough people are aware of it
and also this one, Wendell did a great job.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzHcrbT5D_Y
Considering how it looks it HAS to be silicon-level problem that potentially could be less likely to occur (or at least postponed) by reducing performance.
This isn’t typical error caused by bugs in microcode. It is directly related to silicon.