If Trump is elected, will there be a government shutdown before the 2026 midterms?
If Trump is elected, will there be a government shutdown before the 2026 midterms?
Mini
23
Ṁ16842026
37%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election this market will resolve to N/A. If Donald Trump does win the 2024 presidential election:
This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a government shutdown for any amount of time. A government shutdown is defined as a failure to pass legislation funding the federal government that results in federal employees being furloughed.
This market will resolve to NO otherwise
Note: if this market is featured on the Manifold Politics page the @ManifoldPolitics account may make edits, issue clarifications, and decide the resolution in ambiguous cases.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will there be a government shutdown before April 2026?
40% chance
If the republicans win the House of Representatives will there be a government shutdown by the end of 2026
73% chance
Will there be a US government shutdown in 2025?
31% chance
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
76% chance
If Trump wins, will any country enact economic sanctions against the U.S. by the 2026 midterms?
61% chance
Will Trump do a good job before the 2026 midterms?