How should this question about TikTok remaining "unscathed" resolve?
16
resolved May 8
It should resolve YES
It should resolve NO
It should resolve N/A

See this market - there is only one unresolved question/statement left: "TikTok skates unscathed through another presidential administration."

Some potentially relevant considerations:

TikTok shut down briefly at the very end of the Biden administration, on Jan 19th.

The market closed at the end of December 2024, and the creator said in the description

One very important point all bettors need to understand is that the only additional criterion I add on top of Casey's is that the predictions must have verifiably come true by EOY 2024. This does NOT require the prediction content to have occurred in full or in part in 2024; e.g. we may have reliable reporting in January 2024 about GPT-5 being trained in 2023, and that would count as a "come true" for the purposes of both markets. That said, nothing that came true only after January 1st, 2025 counts for fairness/clarity/intelligibility.

On the other hand, they also said in a comment:

also, any objections to letting the tiktok one linger on until the end of the month...? seems like that one needs longer to become resolvable, but if y'all feel otherwise we can do it earlier.

And didn't get any objections.

On the third hand, perhaps the position of TikTok was precarious enough prior to Jan 1 that the market should have resolved NO then anyway?

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Just for fun, the opinions of three facets of the collective subconscious:

TL;DR Claude refuses to answer due to knowledge cutoff. Gemini and GPT both say NO due to events long before the election. 🤷

On the third hand, perhaps the position of TikTok was precarious enough prior to Jan 1 that the market should have resolved YES then anyway?

I think you meant NO here?

@Eliza Fixed, thanks.